Làm thế nào để đối phó với căng thẳng địa chính trị? Quan điểm từ Việt Nam và ASEAN

Abstract

Claims that multifaceted collaboration between pro-trade middle powers and ASEAN is crucial for preserving vigorous economic activities in the worsening US-China confrontation. The paper starts with explaining the complicated nature of geopolitics-related policies that influence the design and operation of global supply chains. Then the economic effects of two major policies, a tariff war and high-tech export control, are reviewed by referring to some existing empirical studies. A couple of undesirable consequences of recent policies, namely, enhancing policy uncertainties and weakening the rules-based trading regime, are analyzed, and possible policy remedies are discussed. In the end, the paper discusses how Vietnam and ASEAN should deal with the current geopolitical tension.