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Nguyễn, Q. A. (2026). Lòng tin chiến lược trong quan hệ quốc tế: Trường hợp xung đột biên giới Trung – Ấn tại Galwan. Tạp chí Khoa học Trường Đại học Đông Á, 5(2). https://doi.org/10.59907/daujs.5.2.2026.563
Lòng tin chiến lược trong quan hệ quốc tế: Trường hợp xung đột biên giới Trung – Ấn tại Galwan
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Tóm tắt
Bài viết phân tích vấn đề lòng tin trong quan hệ quốc tế thông qua trường hợp xung đột Trung - Ấn tại thung lũng Galwan năm 2020. Nghiên cứu đặt ra câu hỏi vì sao và bằng cách nào lòng tin giữa Trung Quốc và Ấn Độ sụp đổ và chuyển hóa thành leo thang xung đột, dù hai bên vẫn duy trì các cơ chế kiểm soát rủi ro và đối thoại song phương. Bài viết sử dụng khung phân tích tích hợp, kết hợp chủ nghĩa duy lý, chủ nghĩa kiến tạo và tâm lý học chính trị, dựa trên phân tích định tính các văn bản chính thức, diễn ngôn chính trị, tài liệu học thuật và nguồn báo chí liên quan đến Galwan. Kết quả cho thấy sự đổ vỡ lòng tin không chỉ bắt nguồn từ khác biệt lợi ích vật chất, mà còn từ các tự sự chủ quyền không tương thích và các thiên kiến nhận thức trong điều kiện khủng hoảng. Khi cảm xúc chính trị và áp lực danh tiếng gia tăng, các cơ chế xây dựng lòng tin bị vô hiệu hóa, khiến nhượng bộ trở nên khó chấp nhận. Bài viết kết luận rằng lòng tin là một hiện tượng đa tầng, và việc thiếu củng cố đồng bộ ở các cấp độ chiến lược, xã hội và tâm lý đã đẩy quan hệ Trung - Ấn vào trạng thái ngờ vực kéo dài sau Galwan.
Chi tiết bài viết
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Từ khóa
Lòng tin, Ngờ vực, Quan hệ Trung - Ấn, Thung lũng Galwan, Xung đột
Tài liệu tham khảo
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Chilton, P., & Lakoff, G. (1995). Metaphor in foreign policy discourse. In C. Schaffner & A. Wenden (Eds.), Language and peace (pp. 37-59). Dartmouth.
Hardin, R. (2002). Trust and trustworthiness. Russell Sage Foundation. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315542294-2
Hoffman, A. M. (2002). A conceptualization of trust in international relations. European Journal of International Relations, 8(3), 375-401. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354066102008003003
Booth, K., & Wheeler, N. J. (2008). The security dilemma: Fear, cooperation, and trust in world politics. Palgrave Macmillan.
Hollis, M. (1998). Trust within reason. Cambridge University Press.
Brugger, P., Hasenclever, A., & Kasten, L. (2013). Theorizing the impact of trust on post-agreement negotiations: The case of Franco-German security relations. International Negotiation, 18(3), 441-469. https://doi.org/10.1163/15718069-12341262
Lebow, R. N. (2013). The role of trust in international relations. Global Asia, 8(3), 16-23.
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2013). Structural realism. In T. Dunne, M. Kurki, & S. Smith (Eds.), International relations theories: Discipline and diversity (pp. 75-93). Oxford University Press.
Keating, V. C., & Ruzicka, J. (2014). Trusting relationships in international politics: No need to hedge. Review of International Studies, 40(4), 753-770. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0260210514000059
Carlson, L. J., & Dacey, R. (2014). The use of fear and anger to alter crisis initiation. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 31(2), 168-192. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894213509950
Brugger, P. (2015). Trust as a discourse: Concept and measurement strategy—First results from a study on German trust in the USA. Journal of Trust Research, 5(1), 78-100. https://doi.org/10.1080/21515581.2015.1014912
Weinhardt, C. (2015). Relational trust in international cooperation: The case of North-South trade negotiations. Journal of Trust Research, 5(1), 27-54. https://doi.org/10.1080/21515581.2015.1014906
Jervis, R. (2017). Prospect theory: The political implications of loss aversion. In How statesmen think (pp. 85-104). Princeton University Press. https://doi.org/10.1515/9781400885336-006
Haakkala, H., van de Wetering, C., & Vuorelma, J. (Eds.). (2018). Trust in international relations: Rationalist, constructivist, and psychological approaches (1st ed.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315209838
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Mason, S. (2020). India’s Pangong pickle: New Delhi’s options after its clash with China. War on the Rocks. https://warontherocks.com/2020/07/indias-pangong-pickle-new-delhis-options-after-its-clash-with-china/
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Tikku, A. (2020). “Exaggerated”: India’s late-night rebuttal to China’s new claim over Galwan Valley. Hindustan Times. https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/in-rebuttal-at-midnight-india-calls-china-claim-over-galwan-untenable/story-vHFNgMujti6TNezyjFNSkN.html
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Deuskar, N. (2022). Why accepting “differing perceptions” on the LAC might be hurting India strategically. Scroll.in. https://scroll.in/article/1040350
Muratbekova, A. (2022). Leadership styles of Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi: Impact on the border issue. Eurasian Research Journal, 4(3), 23-38. https://doi.org/10.53277/2519-2442-2022.3-02
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International Crisis Group. (2023). Thin ice in the Himalayas: Handling the India-China border dispute. https://www.crisisgroup.org/rpt/asia/south-asia/india-china/334
Ramachandran, S. (2023). 3 years after the India-China face-off at Galwan Valley. The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2023/06/3-years-after-the-india-china-face-off-at-galwan-valley/
Thomas, C. J., & Haans, F. J. (2023). Great power competition: BRI vs. the B3W. World Affairs: The Journal of International Issues, 27(4), 10-21. https://www.jstor.org/stable/48761464
Verma, R. (2023). India’s economic decoupling from China: A critical analysis. Asia Policy, 18(1), 143-166. https://www.jstor.org/stable/27254620
Zhou, A., Goemans, H. E., & Weintraub, M. (2023). Sources of risk acceptance in territorial disputes (SSRN Working Paper). https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4422049
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